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 From : Sergey Lentsov                       2:4615/71.10   26 Apr 2001  17:11:06
 To : All
 Subject : URL: http://lwn.net/2001/0426
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    Here is the [45]permanent site for this page.
    
    See also: [46]last week's LWN.
    
 Leading items and editorials
 
    IDC on the future of multiuser systems. IDC has [47]announced a report
    describing its view of the future in the "multiuser system" market.
    The company expects quite a bit of growth in this arena, with the
    market being worth $34.6 billion by 2004. Forecasts have been provided
    for individual operating systems as well:
    
    System 1999 revenue
    (billion) 2004 revenue
    (billion)
    Linux $0.4 $4.1
    Windows NT $4.7 $12.8
    Unix $11.4 $14.9
    
    If reality comes close to matching these figures, there are some
    interesting conclusions to be drawn here.
    
    Unix systems (which Unix was not specified in the release) are
    expected to hold almost half of the multiuser system market in 2004.
    Market share will drop, but revenues will increase as the whole pie
    gets bigger. In other words, proprietary Unix will be feeling the
    pressure, but the rumors of its death are still somewhat premature.
    
    The Linux growth rate will continue to be phenomenal. Of course, we
    didn't need IDC to tell us that, but it's nice to see anyway.
    
    Windows NT, it is said, will grow twice as much as Linux in absolute
    dollars (though you get a different story if you look at percentages).
    It will bring in three times as much revenue as Linux in 2004. It's
    worth pointing out one thing here, though: the revenue from an average
    Linux deployment is a fraction of that from a Windows deployment. One
    Linux CD, perhaps not even purchased, can power many computers. Thus,
    we conclude that Windows may bring in more money, but far more Linux
    systems will be deployed.
    
    Finally, $4.1 billion is a reasonable chunk of change - and it only
    represents one segment of the operating systems market, and only in
    the United States. It may be a bit of a lean time for Linux companies
    at the moment, but people will be making money - serious money - with
    free software before too long.
    
    Perhaps we didn't need IDC to tell us that either. But it's still nice
    to hear.
    
    SDMI brings out the threats. Two very different approaches to the
    protection of audio data (i.e. music) and its creators have come out
    recently. They are worth a look.
    
    Remember the SDMI challenge? The Secure Digital Music Initiative seeks
    to defeat copying of digital audio through the use of a number of
    watermarking technologies. SDMI issued a public challenge last year,
    offering prizes for those who could crack their technologies - as long
    as the victorious parties kept their findings secret. A number of
    people called for a boycott of this challenge, thinking that SDMI was
    really just trying to find obvious problems before deploying an
    expensive new system.
    
    A group lead by professor Edward Felton at Princeton succeeded in a
    number of attacks against SDMI, but then chose not to claim the prize;
    instead, they decided to release their findings publicly. Not
    surprisingly, the SDMI crowd is not much pleased; thus [48]this letter
    sent to Professor Felton by Matthew Oppenheim, Secretary of the SDMI
    Foundation:
    
      Unfortunately, the disclosure that you are contemplating could
      result in significantly broader consequences and could directly
      lead to the illegal distribution of copyrighted material. Such
      disclosure is not authorized in the Agreement, would constitute a
      violation of the Agreement and would subject your research team to
      enforcement actions under the DMCA and possibly other federal laws.
      
    Here, "the Agreement," is one of the click-through variety that
    accompanied the challenge.
    
    Even the DVDCCA, in its challenge against the DeCSS code, has not
    tried to go this far. The DVD people have acknowledged that a textual
    description of the DVD content scrambling system is protected speech,
    and its distribution can not be restricted. The DVDCCA has limited its
    efforts to stamping out the code - an effort which gets going again
    next week. There is no "DeSDMI" code in circulation, and no immediate
    threat to SDMI-protected music. But the SDMI people aren't waiting for
    that to happen; they are out to shut down the distribution of
    information at a much more basic level. They will run into some
    interesting first amendment issues if the continue to pursue this
    case.
    
    All this is happening, of course, in an attempt to protect technology
    which is already in commercial use. Rather than admit that they
    adopted a worthless protection scheme, they are trying to sweep the
    issue under the rug with legal threats. This, of course, will prove
    difficult to do, especially since Professor Felton and company have
    already [49]published a paper describing how they attacked SDMI. Their
    conclusions are worth reading:
    
      Certainly, the technical details of any scheme will become known
      publicly through reverse engineering. Using the techniques we have
      presented here, we believe no public watermark-based scheme
      intended to thwart copying will succeed. Other techniques may or
      may not be strong against attacks. For example, the encryption used
      to protect consumer DVDs was easily defeated. Ultimately, if it is
      possible for a consumer to hear or see protected content, then it
      will be technically possible for the consumer to copy that content.
      
    The SDMI is fighting a losing battle. Unfortunately, it is still a
    battle, and a great deal of damage could be done before it is
    finished.
    
    The EFF Open Audio License. So maybe digital watermarking and other
    copy protection schemes are a lost cause. And maybe the content
    industries will eventually wake up to the fact that treating their
    customers as if they were criminals is not the best marketing tactic.
    How, then, can a sustainable industry be built that better fits
    reality?
    
    The software industry is ahead of music in this regard. Copy
    protection schemes were tried in the 1980's, with no more success than
    audio and video is seeing now. Much of the industry has moved on to
    hardcore legal bullying techniques; it still treats its customers like
    criminals. But proprietary software is increasingly threatened by, of
    course, free software. Free software licenses recognize that copying
    will happen, and that the users of software deserve a little more
    respect.
    
    How a sustainable free software industry will look is still unclear -
    many companies trying to work in this area are having difficulties
    now. But it is reasonably evident that, when the intellectual property
    itself is not making money, companies need to look to performance for
    their revenues. Digital Creations founder Paul Everitt once justified
    the open-sourcing of [50]Zope by saying (in paraphrase) "the ability
    to create Zope is far more valuable than Zope itself." Having shown
    how it can perform, Digital Creations is making money by applying its
    abilities to the needs of its clients.
    
    Can this model work in the audio world? Consider, for a moment, the
    Grateful Dead. The Dead placed its live performances under an informal
    open license - its customers were empowered to tape Dead shows and
    make copies for their friends. One of the results is that the Dead was
    one of the top-grossing concert bands for decades. It worked for them,
    and for a number of other groups that have followed the same model.
    
    The Electronic Frontier Foundation has just released [51]version 1.0
    of the EFF Open Audio License, which may well form the basis of a
    performance-based audio business model. This license looks very much
    like the GPL: unlimited copying, modification, and distribution are
    allowed, but you can not restrict the rights of others to further
    redistribute the result. There is an attribution requirement as well.
    The EFF has clearly taken a cue from the free software world:
    
      As in the software communities, this license is intended to help
      foster a community of creators and performers who are free to share
      and build on each others' work while freeing their audience to
      share works that they enjoy with others, all for the purpose of
      creating a rich and vibrant public commons.
      
    The presence of a new license does not, in itself, create a new music
    industry. It remains to be seen what level of interest this license
    will find in the music industry. It is true, though, that a great many
    musicians are not particularly happy with the current arrangement;
    things could change faster than many of us would expect.
    
    Inside this week's Linux Weekly News:
      * [52]Security: Pre-release advisories, OpenSSL update, new
        vulnerabilities in KFM, NEdit, SAFT/sendfile, and innfeed.
      * [53]Kernel: Security modules; block drivers and plugging; non-GPL
        firmware in the kernel; Eric in KernelLand.
      * [54]Distributions: Linux-Mandrake 8.0, FreeBSD 4.3, ASPLinux 7.1,
        Think Blue Linux for the 64-bit Zseries, RTLinux goes BSD.
      * [55]On the Desktop: A first look at Ximian GNOME, KDE 2.2Alpha1,
        and KDE/GNOME put Linux on the desktop...almost.
      * [56]Development: DirectFB - abstracting the Linux framebuffer for
        embedded devices, interview with the Simputer team and biology and
        open source.
      * [57]Commerce: IBM: New AIX and Informix acquisition; Layoffs at
        Caldera.
      * [58]History: Three years ago - proposed changes to the Uniform
        Commercial Code; Two years ago - gcc and egcs projects merge.
      * [59]Letters: Italian web site registration; social research with
        Google; Bonobos are not unique.
        
    ...plus the usual array of reports, updates, and announcements.
    
    This Week's LWN was brought to you by:
      * [60]Jonathan Corbet, Executive Editor
      * [61]Elizabeth O. Coolbaugh, Managing Editor
      * [62]Michael J. Hammel, Senior Editor
        
    April 26, 2001
    
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    [66]Eklektix, Inc. Linux powered! Copyright Л 2001 [67]Eklektix, Inc.,
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    Linux (R) is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds
 
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    7. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/devel.php3
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    9. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/press.php3
   10. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/announce.php3
   11. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/history.php3
   12. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/letters.php3
   13. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/bigpage.php3
   14. http://lwn.net/daily/
   15. http://lwn.net/cgi-bin/webcal.pl
   16. http://lwn.net/stocks/
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   18. http://lwn.net/Gallery/
   19. http://lwn.net/archives/
   20. http://lwn.net/op/headlines.phtml
   21. http://lwn.net/op/Contact.html
   22. http://linux.tucows.com/
   23. http://news.tucows.com/ext2/
   24. http://unixthemes.tucows.com/
   25. http://lwn.net/2001/features/KernelSummit/
   26. http://lwn.net/2001/features/Singapore
   27. http://lwn.net/2001/features/djbdns.php3
   28. http://lwn.net/2001/features/linuxworldny/
   29. http://lwn.net/2001/features/JHaas/
   30. http://lwn.net/2001/features/LarryWall/
   31. http://lwn.net/2001/features/Momjian/
   32. http://lwn.net/2000/features/Timeline/
   33. http://lwn.net/2000/features/ESR/
   34. http://lwn.net/2000/features/Comdex/index.php3
   35. http://lwn.net/2000/features/Comdex/RansomLove.php3
   36. http://lwn.net/2000/features/Guido.php3
   37. http://lwn.net/2000/features/PaulEveritt.php3
   38. http://lwn.net/2000/features/ESC/
   39. http://lwn.net/2000/features/ESC/ELC.php3
   40. http://lwn.net/2000/features/OLS/
   41. http://lwn.net/2000/features/CBunks/
   42. http://lwn.net/2000/features/pcb/
   43. http://lwn.net/2000/features/Axis/
   44. http://lwn.net/2000/features/FSLCluster/
   45. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/
   46. http://lwn.net/2001/0419/
   47. http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CoUoOWbWbtKvnmdiY
   48. http://www.politechbot.com/p-01946.html
   49. http://cryptome.org/sdmi-attack.htm
   50. http://www.zope.org/
   51. http://www.eff.org/IP/Open_licenses/20010421_eff_oal_1.0.html
   52. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/security.php3
   53. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/kernel.php3
   54. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/dists.php3
   55. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/desktop.php3
   56. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/devel.php3
   57. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/commerce.php3
   58. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/history.php3
   59. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/letters.php3
   60. mailto:lwn@lwn.net
   61. mailto:lwn@lwn.net
   62. mailto:lwn@lwn.net
   63. http://ads.tucows.com/click.ng/buttonpos=lwnbutton125top
   64. http://ads.tucows.com/click.ng/buttonpos=125-001-016
   65. http://lwn.net/2001/0426/security.php3
   66. http://www.eklektix.com/
   67. http://www.eklektix.com/
 
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